saketkapur
06-09 06:35 PM
http://imminfo.com/Newsletter/2009-AILA/Likely_visa_bulletin_cutoff_date_movement.html
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
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greyhair
07-08 11:23 PM
eb3retro, i think u & i need not as much worry about oscarzumaran et al..... as we should worry about those who remain silent..... day after day....
Why should we worry about those who are silent? What do you mean?
Why should we worry about those who are silent? What do you mean?
mariusp
02-20 06:40 PM
I read the document and here's what I think is the important part:
In a subset of these
case, the FBI name check request that been pending for more than 180 days.
This means that only a part of those 47k applications are pending for more than 180 days. This doesn't say they will approve 47k in March.
Why mid March? Well that's the time of the month when the VB will be published so I'm curious to see how the April VB will look like.
In a subset of these
case, the FBI name check request that been pending for more than 180 days.
This means that only a part of those 47k applications are pending for more than 180 days. This doesn't say they will approve 47k in March.
Why mid March? Well that's the time of the month when the VB will be published so I'm curious to see how the April VB will look like.
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GCard_Dream
06-26 04:05 PM
I am getting confused here about digital photo and USCIS not accepting them. I am assuming that "digital photo" just means pictures taken from a digital camera and printed out, which is what most of the studios do anyways, so why would USCIS have any problem with it. Is there a difference in pictures taken from a digital camera vs poloroid camera? If anything, digital camera most likey will have far better picture quality than poloroid camera so what's the deal with "digital photo" being unacceptable. Or do you guys mean a photo on a floppy of something when you say digital photo.
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sanbaj
07-28 03:49 PM
:confused: I have
EB2 140 Approved Feb 2006
EB3 140 approved June 2004
My Lawyer says that when they filed my 485 in July 2007, they sent both 140 petitions. IS THAT POSSIBLE ?
Now that the dates got current in Aug 2008 bulletin , I asked them to proceed further so that my case could be adjudicated.
They suggested me to wait and see since ,now, my original EB2 is current anyways.
My question is, Is there any way to find out which category (EB2 OR EB3)will USCIS consider my 485 case to be ?
Should I request infopass now or wait ?
Yes, in my opinion, you can file with two I140s, especially, if you want to use category of one and PD of the other. You can find the PD for your 485 on your 485 RN and from that you can deduce that they are looking at EB3 or EB2 I140.
Waiting for Aug/08 and calling USCIS for opening a SR is the good way to ask them to work on your case.
Best of Luck.
EB2 140 Approved Feb 2006
EB3 140 approved June 2004
My Lawyer says that when they filed my 485 in July 2007, they sent both 140 petitions. IS THAT POSSIBLE ?
Now that the dates got current in Aug 2008 bulletin , I asked them to proceed further so that my case could be adjudicated.
They suggested me to wait and see since ,now, my original EB2 is current anyways.
My question is, Is there any way to find out which category (EB2 OR EB3)will USCIS consider my 485 case to be ?
Should I request infopass now or wait ?
Yes, in my opinion, you can file with two I140s, especially, if you want to use category of one and PD of the other. You can find the PD for your 485 on your 485 RN and from that you can deduce that they are looking at EB3 or EB2 I140.
Waiting for Aug/08 and calling USCIS for opening a SR is the good way to ask them to work on your case.
Best of Luck.
k_ek
12-06 02:23 AM
Dear friends, why do you seek to start bashing your country at the first opportunity you get. THere are people in the Indian Govt who are negotiating on your behalf to make sur you get your money back.
THen on the question of paying bribes to get money out of PPF - something is better than nothing. Why complain. If it is so bad, go back and fight to fix the system, otherwise stop maoning. India is the only country that will welcome you if you are kicked out of here. I remember i used to pay 50 INR per ticket for a railway seat, now i go online and book a ticket. Things change they take time and patience.
Only those people who have NEVER bribed anyone to get stuff done illegally, or out of turn should speak. And i know there is no one, since you are in US and came on a passport and we all know how passports are obtained.
You left india, want to stay away, so leave it alone. When you are kicked out of everywhere, the doors will still be open, just keep some cash for the gatekeeper.
Lets discuss whether this swap will be possible or not, or what the loopholes are.
thanks
thanx suttu
really good post.
MERA BHARAT MAHAN
THen on the question of paying bribes to get money out of PPF - something is better than nothing. Why complain. If it is so bad, go back and fight to fix the system, otherwise stop maoning. India is the only country that will welcome you if you are kicked out of here. I remember i used to pay 50 INR per ticket for a railway seat, now i go online and book a ticket. Things change they take time and patience.
Only those people who have NEVER bribed anyone to get stuff done illegally, or out of turn should speak. And i know there is no one, since you are in US and came on a passport and we all know how passports are obtained.
You left india, want to stay away, so leave it alone. When you are kicked out of everywhere, the doors will still be open, just keep some cash for the gatekeeper.
Lets discuss whether this swap will be possible or not, or what the loopholes are.
thanks
thanx suttu
really good post.
MERA BHARAT MAHAN
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logiclife
03-29 01:31 PM
Good work.
Please send an email to Varsha or Sanjay asap with exactly what you have posted above.
I would request everyone who finishes the meeting to :
1. Prepare a summary like Gajendra has done above, and email that to Varsha and Sanjay. Do not post here too much details.
2. If you do post details of your meeting here to encourage others by telling them how good the meeting was, please do not disclose the names of staff members you met with. But put those details and names for followup meetings in the email you send to Varsha and Sanjay.
Thanks.
Please send an email to Varsha or Sanjay asap with exactly what you have posted above.
I would request everyone who finishes the meeting to :
1. Prepare a summary like Gajendra has done above, and email that to Varsha and Sanjay. Do not post here too much details.
2. If you do post details of your meeting here to encourage others by telling them how good the meeting was, please do not disclose the names of staff members you met with. But put those details and names for followup meetings in the email you send to Varsha and Sanjay.
Thanks.
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syedajmal
02-11 10:18 AM
While we work on bills, is there anything that can be done without a bill but from some kind of an order from the President's office or the Head of USCIS. Getting a bill thru congress in this climate seems next to impossible ( If we could just counter the -ve bills/amendments that would be significant).
What I am trying to say is there something somewhere that can be done with just one office making the decision then we can all make a concentrated effort towards that one office as we do have a few Legal immigration friendly people at every office.
Any ideas????
What I am trying to say is there something somewhere that can be done with just one office making the decision then we can all make a concentrated effort towards that one office as we do have a few Legal immigration friendly people at every office.
Any ideas????
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waiting_4_gc
08-28 02:50 PM
I didn’t want to go to DC rally due to my surgery appointment (September 6th) because I can not fly for three weeks after the surgery.
Guess what?, I have postponed my surgery appointment date, booked tickets and going to DC rally on Monday evening and flying back on Tuesday night.
I also urge people to take a day off and attend the rally.
Guess what?, I have postponed my surgery appointment date, booked tickets and going to DC rally on Monday evening and flying back on Tuesday night.
I also urge people to take a day off and attend the rally.
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gc_check
03-29 07:18 AM
Moderators, Can this thread be moved to member only section and require a login to read the posts, Do see in some posts, some folks had explicitly mentioned the names and offices IV had approached... Wouldn't it give a lead to anti-immigration activist?
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Kitiara
02-04 05:28 PM
I don't care! I got a second vote! :beam:
Thank you very much for voting for my little castle. Still got a long way to catch up with Soul and Eilsoe though. :cyborg:
Thank you very much for voting for my little castle. Still got a long way to catch up with Soul and Eilsoe though. :cyborg:
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dummgelauft
07-28 10:52 PM
There is a question about removing per country limit at the end.These morons are very concerned that no single country (meaning China and India) overwhelm the supply of immigrant visa's. I wonder if they will consider applying country limits when passing amnesty :D
.limit or no limit..they WILL end up with more Chinese and Indians anyways than other nationalities..just because of the sheer numbers, from these two countries....
.limit or no limit..they WILL end up with more Chinese and Indians anyways than other nationalities..just because of the sheer numbers, from these two countries....
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rockstart
05-15 08:14 AM
I guess this is 1st step in right direction. People with MS and PhD from US universities should be given preferential treatment.
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alterego
09-14 04:28 PM
I couldn't agree with you more...
As long as you are able to do what you want to do in life, that is what really matters. I don't have children yet, so that's not my worry. My spouse is on her own H1 and I hold two jobs on concurrent H1s.
Between the 3 jobs, we make good money, own two houses in the US, one overseas and live a content life. That's our GC, the actual GC is nice to have but it doesn't bother us that much...I bet there are plenty of GC holders out there who haven't gotten as far as I have...in terms of working 2 jobs & owning 2 houses.
So the moral of the story is, GC or no GC, live a good life, be content and don't miss out on the fun...don't let the GC fever bring you down..
If the hosung markets turned down like the NASDAQ 5 yrs ago, and brought down the whole economy with it, then as a result of the ensuing economic recession you lost one, two or all 3 of your jobs and ended up in negative equity, could not find a new job sponsoring H1b due to the deep recession and your greencard is nowhere in the near future. Would you still feel as secure and happy? I am not sure what country you are from, but would you make a salary close to what you are making here?
Security my friend, thats what a green card brings. I applaud you on your courage and bravery in just taking a chance and doing all these things, you will likely be fine and get your green card eventually but taking risks can bring consequences as well. Many people are more risk averse than you.
As long as you are able to do what you want to do in life, that is what really matters. I don't have children yet, so that's not my worry. My spouse is on her own H1 and I hold two jobs on concurrent H1s.
Between the 3 jobs, we make good money, own two houses in the US, one overseas and live a content life. That's our GC, the actual GC is nice to have but it doesn't bother us that much...I bet there are plenty of GC holders out there who haven't gotten as far as I have...in terms of working 2 jobs & owning 2 houses.
So the moral of the story is, GC or no GC, live a good life, be content and don't miss out on the fun...don't let the GC fever bring you down..
If the hosung markets turned down like the NASDAQ 5 yrs ago, and brought down the whole economy with it, then as a result of the ensuing economic recession you lost one, two or all 3 of your jobs and ended up in negative equity, could not find a new job sponsoring H1b due to the deep recession and your greencard is nowhere in the near future. Would you still feel as secure and happy? I am not sure what country you are from, but would you make a salary close to what you are making here?
Security my friend, thats what a green card brings. I applaud you on your courage and bravery in just taking a chance and doing all these things, you will likely be fine and get your green card eventually but taking risks can bring consequences as well. Many people are more risk averse than you.
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svgupta
05-15 12:14 PM
I think they have to pay the minimum wage as declared in their petition.
But I doubt whether they even send those employees on assignments. I guess they process these H1s as a carrot to retain the employees or to preprepared for any future assignments (they may not even come and the visas are never used)...
Wish there is a different category of visas for outsourced kind of work so that H1s can be used by America based companies and H1 is not seen in such a bad light.
Having a different category of visa sure sounds good.
However, it would be really difficult to implement as these BIG consulting cos will easily show proof that not all deputed in US are responsible for offshoring the work.
Another point would be that these cos charge a very high billing rate for those deputed in US and the clients (US companies, who hire these consulting cos) usually end up paying the same rate (or even more). However, the poor employees get probably just 50-60% of their billing rate.
I do have a regard for these cos, they have changed the landscape of our indian economy, but they have exploited their employees to the hilt.
But I doubt whether they even send those employees on assignments. I guess they process these H1s as a carrot to retain the employees or to preprepared for any future assignments (they may not even come and the visas are never used)...
Wish there is a different category of visas for outsourced kind of work so that H1s can be used by America based companies and H1 is not seen in such a bad light.
Having a different category of visa sure sounds good.
However, it would be really difficult to implement as these BIG consulting cos will easily show proof that not all deputed in US are responsible for offshoring the work.
Another point would be that these cos charge a very high billing rate for those deputed in US and the clients (US companies, who hire these consulting cos) usually end up paying the same rate (or even more). However, the poor employees get probably just 50-60% of their billing rate.
I do have a regard for these cos, they have changed the landscape of our indian economy, but they have exploited their employees to the hilt.
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dingudi
11-09 02:00 PM
It would be nice if we can merge the two threads ; July Filers no FP, No SR + July Filers no FP, Opened SR. This way we can get a total count of number of people waiting for FP who are early July/June filers.
This is just a suggestion.
This is just a suggestion.
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DoggyStyle
07-22 02:20 AM
Thank you!!
Sometimes paranoia gets the better of us.
I have access to a lot of "extra" stuff, as you can tell from the blog. It has been a long and tiring fight, but someone has to do it.
Ur blog is full of childish gossips from message boards, like 'extra', which are not useful for IVians.:(
Sometimes paranoia gets the better of us.
I have access to a lot of "extra" stuff, as you can tell from the blog. It has been a long and tiring fight, but someone has to do it.
Ur blog is full of childish gossips from message boards, like 'extra', which are not useful for IVians.:(
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gclabor07
06-18 12:20 PM
I will participate in this campaign in however way possible. I've avoided traveling because of the hassles of stamping and I don't EAD/AP due to missing the July 2007 bus.
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bajrangbali
05-18 09:26 PM
For a moment, leave the IIT/merit/experience arguments aside...fact is US graduate schools get taxpayer funds...and one way or other students graduating in US get benefit from those taxes. Senators do not want their tax $$ investments to leave the country...that only is the reason they did something for US graduates in H1...this separate quota may or may not fly...as there is no direct benefit for US...stay on H1B and pay taxes good for usa :cool:
H1bslave
11-19 03:43 PM
Thanks for your responses and being good critique (aka Devil�s advocate). Unless we analyze our idea from all point-of-views we won�t be able to make it stronger.
Thanks for your contribution.
How about taking out US Masters of all the queues for a while, that will as well speed up the GC process for others. :D:D
Come on guys. Just because CIR is in question for few more months people are coming up with their own agenda. I will come up with my own, how about seperate quota for the folks came in Year 2001 because we faced lot of struggles to keep the job during the bad market.
a self serving proposal..
MS is just a pretext for many who are here. MS is worthless if you are a software engineer.. you don't need MS to be coding in Java or .NET...
MS from some vague sidey backstreet community college cannot be compared to MS from other better off schools.
your proposal is distracting from the main agenda. CIR or other relief measures.
Thanks for your contribution.
How about taking out US Masters of all the queues for a while, that will as well speed up the GC process for others. :D:D
Come on guys. Just because CIR is in question for few more months people are coming up with their own agenda. I will come up with my own, how about seperate quota for the folks came in Year 2001 because we faced lot of struggles to keep the job during the bad market.
a self serving proposal..
MS is just a pretext for many who are here. MS is worthless if you are a software engineer.. you don't need MS to be coding in Java or .NET...
MS from some vague sidey backstreet community college cannot be compared to MS from other better off schools.
your proposal is distracting from the main agenda. CIR or other relief measures.
GCOrNoGC
07-19 05:11 PM
Sorry for my ignorance, but can someone tell me how I can start a new thread. I seem to have a question that probably has not been asked before. Thanks!:confused:
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